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Robin Brooks: It's not so bad

Brooks is the Managing Director of the International Institute of Finance (IIF) and isn't exceptionally worried about the overall economy. He points out that Turkey is rapidly getting back on track when it comes to repaying their debt (balance of payments) and that the world economy is strong enough to support the turnaround (unlike in 2008 when everyone was struggling). See chart from Twitter below:

Mark Bentley: Are you sure, Brooks?

Bentley is the ex-Turkey bureau chief and the current head of international investment news for Bloomberg. He argues that non-exporters have too much credit to support a major recession of the import economy (which he thinks is inevitable). He thinks Erdogan failed his Econ 101 final and is mistakenly placing Turkey’s financial future in an undeveloped export economy to fully cure their sick economy. See confusing text below:

Paul McNamara: I see both points

McNamara is an investment director at GAM Investments who understands where both economists are coming from. He doesn’t think the situations is as dire as Bentley, but he’s also not quite as optimistic as Brooks either. He points to other emerging economies in similar predicaments as evidence that Turkey is likely to recover, but he’s unsure how long it will take. See response to Brooks below:

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